Traders Crucible is not a financial advisor and does not recommend the purchase of any stock, security, or investment, or advise on the suitability of any trade or investment. All of the information on this site is for information purposes only. Any ideas stated, expressed, or implied on this site are solely the opinions of the author(s) and do not represent the opinions of any associated firms. Any author(s) may have a position in any security or investment mentioned or not mentioned on this site. All trading or investing is risky, and the authors assume no responsibility for your trading results. Examples of trades and setups are provided for educational and informational purposes only.

*MEGA* Morning Caffeine 4-30-2012

April 29, 2012 Comments off

Posted from Diigo. The rest of my favorite links are here.

Categories: Main

Spending Going Up Despite Higher Oil Prices

April 29, 2012 Comments off

Gallup Self-reported consumer spending is near post-crisis highs. It’s incredible really.

Oil prices are quite high, and consumer spending is holding up.

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Morning Caffeine 4-20-2012

April 20, 2012 Comments off

Posted from Diigo. The rest of my favorite links are here.

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Mega Link-o-Rama 2-8-2012

February 8, 2012 2 comments

Hi, this is an experiment post for links. I like looking at other peoples links, thought I would try them out here! Of course, this may get migrated to MMR at some point…

Let me know what you think.

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Optimism, National Pride, and Karl Rove

February 8, 2012 3 comments

I happened to see Karl Rove on TV last night and was a bit astonished to find out he’s actually slamming the Chrysler/Clint Eastwood Superbowl ad, half time in America.

To me, the ad was pretty cool, and the other people at the party liked it too. But Karl Rove doesn’t like it. Here’s John Cohn saying what needs to be said (via Kevin Drum):

I have no idea whether Rove really believes Chrysler produced that ad in order to do President Obama a political favor. But the fact that he and other Republicans are so worked up could mean that they are scared—not of the advertisement itself, but of the themes it contains.

Those themes are optimism and national pride. As Salon’s Joan Walsh noted on the Ed Show Monday evening, Republicans have basically owned those themes since the 1980s, when Ronald Reagan won an election with them. But lately President Obama has been the one making the case that it’s morning in America or, at least, just before dawn. He did it in the State of the Union and he’s done it in a series of major speeches since.

The message wouldn’t resonate if it had no basis in reality. But the latest economic indicators suggest the economy really is starting to grow, albeit slowly and tentatively. And nowhere is that more obvious than in the Midwest and Michigan, where the auto industry’s rebound has helped reduce unemployment to levels not seen since before Obama took office.

This seems right to me. I’ve done a small amount of marketing in my life, and have been exposed to an industry which is heavily involved in marketing. If I think about Karl Rove as the worlds greatest political marketing person, he’s gotta be terrified by this development.

Marketing in politics is a zero sum game. You own an issue, or get owned by it. And if the dems start making progress on national pride and optimism, well that means the R’s are loosing ground on those same core values.

You can go to my word cloud and see how I do on issues like Optimism and Recovery. Someone pointed out these were prominent issues for me.  :)  I guess I need to throw a bit more national pride in the mix, because I am proud of the U.S.

Mosler started calling for the Obama boom to begin last year, and unfortunately, it was sucked away by the spike in oil prices. We’re starting to see the benefits of higher spending plus lower oil prices over the last few months.

Malinvestment and Good Accidents

January 31, 2012 3 comments

Matt Y talks about how Malinvestement doesn’t always have bad results due to luck.

As we know, Christopher Columbus had problems financing his journey – which created the most powerful empire of the next 200 years –  because he was totally wrong about the size of the earth and everyone knew it but a few rich fools.

“That said, it all made me wonder a bit about the social value of malinvestment. I’m really struck by the fact that Christopher Columbus sailed to the New World on the basis of a mathematical miscalculation about the size of the earth. It’s particularly striking that the conventional wisdom of Columbus’ time essentially had this question right—the earth, most scientists thought at the time, was much too large to make Columbus’ proposed westward sailing voyage a viable way of getting to China. Columbus shopped his idea to various monarchs, most of whom were in possession of accurate geographical analysis and rejected his idea. But Ferdinand and Isabella signed on to the crank’s erroneous ideas about where China was. For their trouble, they wound up in possession of a vast and wealthy empire and Spain became the leading Great Power of the 16th and 17th Century. Not bad for an unintended consequence of misguided idea based on an Italian navigator’s megalomania and calculation errors.”

This I think is one of the more important facets of human life: Luck. In this case, malinvestment turned out to have fantastically positive consequences for Spain. However, Luck isn’t always due to malinvestment.

There is a famous phrase about luck, “opportunity meeting preparation”, and lots of people try to apply this phrase to their lives. I know I do – it’s a good way to live.

But far fewer people think of this on the level of a country. How can we create situations where “good luck” happens? Well, keeping bunch of industries geographically close makes “lucky” things happen.

This is why Silicon Valley draws such bright people to it. It’s entirely possible to show up for work at some cool company and get lucky and become a multi-millionaire.  It happens all the time – I at least one person personally who took this life path and it worked great.

I think about Tesla, how he would just walk around New York City and meet with people who would fund his crazy ideas. Some of those ideas ended up creating our modern electrical society. We created a place where it was really possible for society to get lucky, and we did.

I think about Jobs tramping around Silicon Valley, selling computers, getting cheap parts, having Woz work at his desk on Apple stuff. We created a place where our society can get lucky, and we did.

Matt Y talks puts Malinvestment in the title, but this post is just as much about luck as Malinvestment. This is why it’s useful to build things here.  We could get lucky again.

 

Categories: Main

A Small Victory

January 31, 2012 Comments off

Check out this screenshot. Traders Crucible shows up #2 when you google  “Shadow Government Statistics”.

The post is Why Shadow Government Statistics is very, very, very wrong.

It’s hard to fight back against endless lies about how our economy works, but I’ll take this small victory. I get a few clicks every day on that post.

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